Bespoke Weather Services was founded in September 2014 by Jacob Meisel in partnership with Paul Hickey and Justin Walters of Bespoke Investment Group.
Jacob Meisel has been analyzing numerical weather guidance for nearly a decade with some of the most advanced weather modeling data available to meteorologists. Similarly, he has been researching commodities markets closely for four years now and providing directional trends for front-end physical natural gas futures based on proprietary weather, fundamental and technical models. Jacob first became well-known in the energy markets in November 2014, when he successfully predicted that a mild December would send natural gas prices plummeting from their November highs. His follow-up report then introduced the idea that further price weakness would be likely into February 2015 as the colder pattern forming would ease, which was seen as prices only continued to decline into the spring. Jacob graduated cum laude from Harvard College in 2017, achieving High Honors as a Social Studies concentrator with a focus on North American Climate and Politics and secondary in Energy & Environment. Through his studies he took numbers of atmospheric science classes, starting from Introduction to Meteorology and Climate with one of the leading Professors of Dynamic Meteorology in the world and continuing on to classes such as Atmospheric Chemistry and those more focused on ocean and atmosphere coupling. Meanwhile, he was combining these with classes on energy policy, economics, and the sociology of markets, environment, and weather to carve out his specific niche field.
Jacob conducted award-winning research into the sociology of meteorology and climate science while at Harvard, writing a thesis on sociological differences between meteorologists and climate scientists. This won him a Hoopes Prize for Outstanding Undergraduate Work, awarded to only a few dozen Harvard undergraduates each year. His thesis focused primarily on divisions between the two communities on the top of climate change and the differing ways they envision the role of the atmosphere and modeling in the climate system. This research and understanding now helps drive his own views of the atmosphere as a complex, fluid system, allowing him to release seasonal forecasts that transcend typical boundaries between climate and weather.
Having distilled complex meteorological patterns into simple blog posts for viewers and clients for numerous years, Jacob similarly has much experience explaining atmospheric changes in a way that is easy to understand for those with no prior meteorological understanding. His first professional site, swctweather.com, has gained significant popularity in the Connecticut and New York region where he forecasts severe weather and tropical storm impacts in the summer and winter storm impacts in the winter. His seasonal forecasts are known for their rigorous statistical analyses, having accurately predicted the snowfall and temperature trends of each of the last three winters in his home region.
Jacob first received popularity in the meteorological community back in 2012, when he blogged about the threat of Hurricane Sandy hitting the east coast 9 days in advance, forecast a New Jersey landfall 5 days in advance, and contradicted Michael Bloomberg in saying the likelihood was high of a New York City subway flood due to storm surge 2 days in advance. Similarly, his more than 200 subscribers and 16,000 Twitter followers have come to rely most on his snow forecasts, deciding when to clear roadways, open town offices and schools, or rebook travel vacations based off of the latest weather data he interprets. He got into weather first by predicting snow days, something that remains dear to him and that explains his popularity among high school and middle school students when winter weather threatens.
Most recently, Jacob has been shifting his focus to further research into weather pattern studies inside the 10-20 day time period. This timeframe is known as one of the most difficult to forecast in the meteorological community due to the amount of model noise and variance introduced run-to-run. This also happens to be one of the timeframes most important to the natural gas futures market, as early notice of major model trends can allow speculators and hedgers to react to expected weather before it gets fully priced in. Jacob focuses on atmospheric indicators coming from weather model data output; namely upper level teleconnections and forecasting tools to determine probability of major demand-shifting weather events across the country. In this way he is able to properly address the risk of major price movements in the coming few weeks.
Should you be interested in any of Jacob’s past market calls, specific experience in market analysis or the meteorological realm, current or planned services at Bespoke Weather Services, or anything else as it relates to Jacob’s history, please feel free to reach out to him at jacob AT bespokeweather.com.