BWS Blog


Colder Weather Helps Send Natural Gas Prices Soaring

Monday, October 25, 2021 at 10:10PM


It is no secret that this October has been a very warm, very low demand month, resulting in larger-than-normal weekly natural gas injections, thanks to the strongest warmth coming where, typically, we see cool enough weather to start racking up HDDs.

Month-to-date temperature anomalies:

natural gas commodity weather

Natural gas demand, as measured by Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) is basically equal to 2016 for the lowest October demand total in our historical dataset, dating back to 1980.

natural gas commodity weather

Longer term guidance had been strongly favoring warmer weather to continue, as well, with the CFS, for example, consistently forecasting a very warm November, which would be unkind to natural gas bulls.

natural gas commodity weather

Toward the end of last week, however, we began to pick up on a rather interesting "blocking" pattern, with anomalous upper-level ridging in the polar regions from northern Canada over to Greenland, often a colder signal in the eastern half of the U.S. This feature had not resulted in much of change in forecast demand back on Friday, but was enough for us to go against the grain, diverging from the warmer model guidance and shift our sentiment to the bullish side of the spectrum in our Friday afternoon report sent out to clients, given what we perceived as colder risks.

natural gas commodity weather

Indeed, the forecast did shift colder, as we picked up 11 GWDDs in our forecast compared to Friday's outlook.

natural gas commodity weather

While not strongly cold, in an overall sense, it marked a major step change away from the massive warmth that had dominated the last several weeks, something that the natural gas market, which had clearly been fading colder risks, took note of, rallying more than 60(!!!) cents vs Friday's closing price in the prompt month November contract.

natural gas commodity weather

This is the time of year when weather changes become *huge* as far as influencing natural gas prices. As we know, these weather patterns can, and often do, change on a dime. Our suite of products can help keep the active natural gas trader ahead of market-moving changes, much as we did for clients in this case, providing not just the latest raw weather data, but expert analysis as well, and forecasts for what is most likely to come next. Sign up for a 10-day FREE trial here to take a closer look at what we have to offer. Do not be left in the dark in this key winter season.