BWS Blog


Cooler Weather Trends Take A Bite Out Of Natural Gas Prices

Tuesday, July 14, 2020 at 11:45AM


Natural gas prices have moved lower so far this week, likely the result of cooler changes in the weather forecast over the weekend. Our forecast yesterday showed a decline in just over 10 projected Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) compared to Friday's forecast.

natural gas commodity weather

In terms of natural gas usage, this change equates to roughly 15 to 18 bcf less demand over the next two weeks. The bulk of the change came in the near-term. The projected GWDD total for this week (ending 7/17) was once as high as 104 to 105, and now sits closer to 90 GWDDs.

natural gas commodity weather

The forecast "held serve" overnight, failing to gain back any of the lost weekend demand. That said, the outlook is far from "cool", with above normal temperatures still widespread in this morning's forecast.

natural gas commodity weather

In fact, despite the weekend change, we are still projecting that this month has a shot to edge out July 2011 for the highest July GWDD total on record.

natural gas commodity weather

The moral of the story here is that, while the weekend change was bearish relative to the end of last week, this is hardly a "bearish" weather pattern, and new days rolling into the back of the forecast continue to be hotter than normal, which, all else being equal, should limit downside to prices, which actually are off this morning's lows by a few cents, gravitating right back to the middle of our long-running continuous prompt month trading range.

natural gas commodity weather

From here, focus shifts more to where this week's EIA number will land, as well as upcoming trends in key variables such as production, LNG volumes, and power burns. The good news? We cover all of this as well in our reports, with our services utilizing a unique blend of weather and fundamentals in order to help shape a clearer market view. Sign up for a 10-day FREE trial here to see for yourself how our products can help keep you ahead of the volatile natural gas market.