BWS Blog


Warmer Weather Hits Natural Gas Prices Again

Wednesday, December 18, 2019 at 1:08PM


The natural gas market did well in shrugging off warmer changes in the weather forecast since last week, but yet another day with a lowering of projected weather demand finally sent prompt month prices back under the 2.30 level, at least as of this writing.

natural gas commodity weather

Daily warmer forecast adjustments have been a common theme recently, with last night's weather models making no exception to this "rule".

Last night's forecast demand profile from the GEFS and ECMWF EPS, compared to 24 hours prior:

natural gas commodity weather

All of the warmer changes now have us projecting this December's total demand (GWDD count) to be very close to the warm December one year ago.

natural gas commodity weather

This has been quite the change from the anomalous cold seen back in November, but the warming was something we had alerted clients to even back in early November, as the cold pattern was in full stride.

natural gas commodity weather

With less than two weeks left in December, and the holidays looming, attention is now on January, and whether cold makes a triumphant return to give a boost to natural gas prices, or if warm continues to win out.

Our products can help take the guesswork out of the equation if you are an active trader in the natural gas market, with a unique blend of both weather and fundamentals to provide a more concise view on how the market is likely to behave. Sign up for a 10-day FREE trial here to take a closer look at all that we have to offer to keep you ahead of ever-changing market conditions.