BWS Blog


Forecast Weather Demand Moves Higher Over Last 48 Hours, But Natural Gas Prices Continue Falling

Wednesday, November 13, 2019 at 1:21PM


After a strong rally that sent prices in the December natural gas price all the way to $2.90 last week, sellers have been in control over the last few sessions. We did see a drop in projected demand in weather forecasts coming out of the weekend, but that has changed in the last 48 hours, with a healthy move back in the colder direction, especially by the GEFS model.

natural gas commodity weather

Despite the move back colder, we have seen no hint of a bullish reaction in the land of prices, as the December contract has fallen all the way down below the $2.60 level today.

natural gas commodity weather

This is typically the time of year when weather changes rule when it comes to natural gas volatility, so what gives? There are a couple of issues. As seen in the chart above, even with the colder change over the last 48 hours, projected demand beyond this week still is just "near normal", with no days anywhere close to this week's peak cold.

Another issue is with supply. We saw a new record high in production this past weekend, and while there are some freeze-offs currently, leading to a decline in production, the amount of freeze-offs appears to be less than what the market had anticipated given the strength of the cold.

natural gas commodity weather

In addition, Canadian imports have ramped up this week, making up for a large portion of what production declines we have seen.

natural gas commodity weather

The end result is that this week's supply is turning out to be higher than expected, and that is, for now, negating the gain in forecast demand seen over the last two days, especially with no days in the forecast strongly to the cold side in the medium range.

Now, if we continue to add demand back, or see a colder start to December, it is likely the market will take notice more. Or, on the flip side, if the pattern steps solidly to the warmer side in December, there is likely still room to fall considerably, even from today's price levels.

With so much hinging upon the outlook for December, timely data / intel is as important as ever. Our unique blend of weather and fundamentals is designed to keep the active trader ahead of potential market moves. Sign up for a 10-day FREE trial here to take a look at what our latest research suggests as we move forward.