Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 2:47PM
While the official start of Autumn lies just around the corner, Summer refuses to go away without a fight, as an unseasonably strong upper level ridge sets up in the eastern half of the nation, making it feel like the change in seasons is still far away. Our forecast is about as hot as you will see it at this time of the year. This is resulting in quite the boost for natural gas demand, with multiple days of 10 or more Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs). The hottest days over the next week will actually be challenging daily GWDD records, and this is pushing our projected GWDD total for the month of September up the charts, not quite to last years level, but among the hottest Septembers recorded in our dataset. Looking at the numbers for key cities across the nation, something new here at Bespoke, we find plenty of 80s and 90s from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and down into the South. While certainly not the only factor that has led natural gas prices higher over the last 2-3 weeks, it has, at the least, provided some tailwinds for the bulls, with prompt month prices around 50 cents off their early August lows. Once to late September, it starts to get a little late for heat to move the needle, as we begin to patiently wait for that first colder outbreak in October than brings in our initial ramp up in HDDs. This typically puts weather on the back burner, so to speak, at least temporarily, allowing other forces, such as supply / demand balances to have control of market movement. Our services keep you up to date on both, with detailed coverage of weather as well as natural gas fundamentals, allowing you to anticipate changes in market sentiment before they occur. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here to take a closer look at all of the products we have to offer, with several new additions on the way, just in time to prepare for the upcoming cold season.