BWS Blog


Tropics Finally Come To Life

Tuesday, August 27, 2019 at 1:54PM


It has been a very slow hurricane season so far, but as we head now into what is typically peak season, things are coming to life. We are tracking a couple of systems out in the Atlantic basin, with the focus being on Tropical Storm Dorian, entering the eastern Caribbean Sea.

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The storm is moving off to the west-northwest, which is predicted to continue the next few days by the National Hurricane Center.

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A couple of things stand out here. The most obvious is the track which heads up into the Bahamas and then to the east coast of Florida this weekend. But you will also notice that it is forecast to stay a tropical storm. It has a big fight ahead of it in the near term, battling dry air, and then perhaps contending with the island of Hispaniola, notorious for tearing tropical systems apart, so there is some risk it doesn't even survive beyond that point. If it is able to do so, the environment once into the Bahamas would become more favorable for development, and that's where it could intensify more than forecast, again, if it survives. Needless to say, all interests in the Bahamas and Florida need to watch this one.

What about the Gulf of Mexico? We can't write that off as a risk, as some members of the ensemble modeling do bring the system across Florida and into the Gulf early next week.

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So, yes, even Gulf interests should keep one eye on Dorian. Risk is low right now due to how far away it is, and the battles in front of it. We will know more in 2-3 days after it clears the big islands of the Caribbean.

We also have Tropical Depression Six off the Southeast coast, expected to become Tropical Storm Erin later today, but this one poses no risk for an impact here in the United States.

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We will closely be watching these systems, as well as the rest of the Atlantic basin as we move through the climatologically favored time of year for development to gauge possible impacts to the U.S, and of course, energy interests. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here to take a look at all of our products related to weather and natural gas fundamentals.