Monday, August 12, 2019 at 5:32PM
Weather forecasts shifted in the hotter direction over the weekend, with more heat seen beyond this week in the eastern half of the nation. This pushed the forecast, which was already calling for well above normal demand, even farther above normal by a few Gas-Weighted Degree Days (our measure of national demand levels). In looking at the daily GWDD profile, virtually every day is above normal. It is now hot enough so that August 2019, based on our current projections, will wind up hotter in terms of total GWDDs than August 2018, which was a top 10 hot August in our historical dataset. Our clients were alerted to the hotter weekend risks back in our Friday afternoon "Pre-Close" Update, where we took a slightly bullish stance at least when looking exclusively at the weather factor. The weather cooperated, but that was not enough to lift natural gas prices higher. The September contract closed just about a penny and a half lower on the day. We outlined the reasons for this price action in today's reports, along with discussing where we feel we go from here based on our blend of weather and fundamentals analysis. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here to take a closer look at our research and products.