BWS Blog


Opposing Forces Lead To Choppy Natural Gas Price Action

Tuesday, August 06, 2019 at 12:46PM


So far this week, natural gas prices have maintained some volatility, plunging to new multi-year lows early yesterday morning, but have bounced back since then to levels very close to where we ended the day back on Friday.

natural gas commodity weather

Opposing forces have been at work this week leading to this choppy price action. On the bearish side, we have new all-time highs in production.

natural gas commodity weather

We also have seen a drastic reduction in LNG intake over the last few days.

natural gas commodity weather

These two factors initially were the focal points of the market, leading us to the fresh lows early yesterday morning. All the while, weekend gas burns were more impressive, and we continue to see a supportive hotter than normal weather pattern, with forecast GWDDs above normal for the next 15 days, with good model agreement on such a pattern.

natural gas commodity weather

As a result, the market said, "not so fast" to the bear parade, rallying off those fresh lows rather quickly, leading us to where we are today as we wait to see which side is able to gain the upper hand. A lot of unknowns remain, such as the duration of the LNG decline, and if the upcoming demand regime is enough to negate or outweigh the bump up in supply. Our research is geared toward sorting through the plethora of data in order to make sense of market action and anticipate its next move using our unique blend of both weather and fundamentals. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here to take a look at all of the products we have to offer to keep you ahead of the market.