Friday, July 26, 2019 at 4:53PM
Natural gas prices continue to take a beating, with the August contract closing just a penny higher than last month's multi-year low for prompt month price. The contract was down 7.5 cents on the day today, settling at $2.169. As we mentioned in yesterday's post, while the EIA number in yesterday's report was almost exactly on par with market expectations, it was reflective of supply / demand balances that are still insufficient to allow prices to rally. The weather forecasts have been moving cooler as well, lowering forecast natural gas demand. We had outlined in our reports yesterday that we could see a continuation of that trend into today, and that proved to be correct, with our forecast moving 4.5 Gas-Weighted Degree Days cooler / lower. There are still some hotter than normal days on the way, but the dip in forecast demand is quite evident out in the 11-15 day time frame. In map form, it shows up even better, with larger coverage of below normal forecast temperature anomalies. The question is, how long will the cooler weather pattern hold? And will the lower price change supply / demand balances such that we can put in a price floor even with cooler weather trends? We can help answer these questions and more. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here and take a look at what our latest research indicates.