BWS Blog


Market Brushes Aside EIA Number To Continue This Week's Selloff

Thursday, July 18, 2019 at 4:54PM


Natural gas prices extended this week's downward move today, with the prompt month August contract settling 1.7 cents down on the day, breaking below the 2.30-2.32 support zone.

natural gas commodity weather

Today's move lower came in spite of the EIA report that showed an injection of 62 bcf for last week, which was actually on the lower end of the range of market estimates.

natural gas commodity weather

This reflected tighter supply/demand balances that were tighter (more bullish) week over week, but that along does not tell the full story. Balances remained on the loose side of the trend line when looking at the same gas week over the last several years, much looser than last year.

natural gas commodity weather

Also, production declines started in the middle of last week ahead of Hurricane Barry's arrival along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

natural gas commodity weather

As a result, the market can more easily discount this number, with the thinking that it would have been higher if not for Barry, hence the tightening may be somewhat artificial.

Add in the lack of strong heat in the weather forecasts beyond this weekend, and the bearishness makes a little more sense.

natural gas commodity weather

One thing is certain, however. This season has not had a shortage of solid price moves, despite fears to the contrary, and it is likely that there will be more to come. Our research is designed to keep you ahead of these changing market conditions, whether they come from the weather side, or a change in fundamentals. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here to take a look at the products we have to offer.