Monday, July 01, 2019 at 11:49AM
The month of June is now in our rear-view mirror, and has concluded as the coolest June we have seen in quite a long time, which added to pressure on natural gas prices in the last few weeks due to how low the weather demand was. In fact, this June had the lowest total number of GWDDs since June 2004 in our dataset. While this was just one factor influencing natural gas prices, it is a big one, and as such, it is no surprise to see the movement down in prices, especially the first half of the month, which was the coolest period. In map form, we see much of the nation covered in "blue", as one would expect with such a low GWDD total. This general type of pattern comes as no surprise, given the El Niño base state that was in control of the weather pattern, as that promotes cooler risks in summer in many of the areas that were cool this June. The El Niño state has shown some notable weakening in the last couple of weeks however, as shown by the daily region 3.4 anomalies. Not coincidentally, the pattern has turned hotter, as we see from this week's modeled temperature anomalies. This begs the question, is the weakening trend a sign of El Niño's demise, opening the door to more bouts of stronger heat as we move through the balance of summer, or is this just a blip that will soon reverse, preventing sustained above normal weather demand? Sign up for a 10-day free trial here and take a look at what our latest research suggests, and how it is likely to impact the natural gas market going forward.