BWS Blog


Hotter Weather Trends Offer Support To Ailing Natural Gas Prices

Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 3:00PM


Natural gas prices have suffered quite a decline over the last few weeks, thanks to very weak supply / demand balances. This has pushed to commodity to multi-year lows, with the July contract bottoming at $2.159 late last week. It has since found a little life, moving up around 15 cents off that low, closing just over the $2.30 level in today's session.

natural gas commodity weather

While prices had reached very oversold levels, part of the recovery has come from an improved weather pattern here in the latter part of June, with slightly above normal heat expected to persist into the start of July as well. Notice the elevated GWDD (the measure of national weather demand) over the next 15 days.

natural gas commodity weather

In map form, we see that there is a lack of "blue" on the maps, and while the heat we see is nothing extreme, the market has taken notice that it's not as tame of a pattern as what had been perceived.

natural gas commodity weather

We first picked up on this risk for some hotter trends back more than two weeks ago, at a time when the pattern was very cool versus normal, giving the "forecast trends" a slightly bullish rating in our "Pre-Close" update from June 7th.

natural gas commodity weather

That risk became reality as forecasts progressed, and at least contributed to giving prices a push higher off last week's multi-year lows. What's the next move from here? Sign up for a 10-day free trial here and take a look at the services we have to offer that can keep you one step ahead of the market.