BWS Blog


Have Natural Gas Prices Found A Bottom?

Friday, June 14, 2019 at 4:08PM


It was a choppy week in the world of natural gas, though it ended on a higher note, with the July contract closing just over 6 cents higher on the day today, giving it a 5 cent gain since last Friday's close.

natural gas commodity weather

The bullish case had gradually been building all week long. We highlighted the other day the hotter changes in the weather pattern, meaning more demand for natural gas, which has held into today's forecasts, thanks to some heat creeping into the South.

natural gas commodity weather

The gradual hotter changes were not enough to bring buyers back in initially, however. After two bearish EIA reports in a row, the market wanted to make sure we would not see a third surprise. We did not, as the report showed a build of 102 bcf, very close to our estimate of 100 bcf. This confirmed our view that balances had tightened significantly compared to prior weeks.

natural gas commodity weather

The recipe for a rally had one last hurdle to climb, and that was cash, which was very weak yesterday, again scaring off potential buyers. We maintained our "slightly bullish" view yesterday afternoon nonetheless, feeling that cash would firm back up as demand increases, and allow prices to run higher.

natural gas commodity weather

It didn't take long for that to occur, as cash firmed up in today's session with higher demand coming over the weekend and into Monday. This finally gave the green light to buyers that it was safe to at least dip their feet into the water.

With prices ending the week almost 9 cents off the lows of late last week, has a bottom been found? We will refrain from going far enough to make that claim, but we can offer analysis to keep you a step ahead of the market's next move. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here to take a look at all of the products we have to offer.