BWS Blog


Natural Gas Prices Remain Stuck In Shoulder Season Rut For Another Day

Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 5:12PM


After an early rally that saw May natural gas prices up as much as 3 cents on the day, much of the rally reversed, with the May contract finishing up only 7 ticks on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

Yesterday, cash prices were the culprit in triggering widespread selling, though today's cash prints were a little firmer.

natural gas commodity weather

So, if not cash, then what halted today's attempt at a rally? It was continued pressure on later-dated contracts, from summer through next winter, which then bled into the front of the curve.

natural gas commodity weather

The relentless selling in the later-dated contracts has not allowed us to have a true "Spring rally", which has historically been common, making this year a big outlier in recent seasonality trends.

natural gas commodity weather

On the weather side, we have seen some colder adjustments in the northern half of the nation, along with some warmer changes in the southern U.S.

natural gas commodity weather

This pattern leads to more heating demand in the north, and some early season cooling demand in the south, boosting GWDD levels back closer to normal for this time of year.

natural gas commodity weather

For the first time in several weeks, we also now finally see forecast GWDDs (weather demand) higher than the same dates from last year.

natural gas commodity weather

Is all of this enough to finally spark a rally in natural gas prices, or are the robust supply levels too much to overcome? Sign up for a 10-day free trial here and take a look at what our research shows regarding the search for what comes next in the natural gas world.