Friday, March 15, 2019 at 4:51PM
The April natural gas contract settled down over 2% today as weather forecasts trended unimpressive through the day with balances doing little to support prices and cash trading weakly ahead of a weekend with one of the last cold shots of the season. The April contract led the whole curve lower after it led the way higher yesterday. We were all over this for clients, with our sentiment in our Afternoon Update yesterday turning bearish. Our Morning Update also outlined the bearish risks to natural gas prices we saw through the day, highlighting a test of $2.8 likely "into early next week" following the gap fill we were watching at $2.856. This came despite some slightly colder trends on overnight weather model guidance. Then afternoon weather model guidance moderated further, keeping the front of the natural gas curve under pressure (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). This came as we saw little in daily balance data to indicate prices were likely to bounce back, as Canadian imports were seen recovering a bit too despite lower production the last few days. Just recently we published our Pre-Close Update, running through our expectations for where April natural gas prices are likely to head next week as well as how weather forecasts should change over the weekend and what price catalysts should arrive next week. To give that report a look, and view all our highly detailed weather and natural gas-driven analysis, try out a 10-day free trial here.