BWS Blog


Warmer Weather Forecasts And Weaker Balances Send Natural Gas Prices Lower

Monday, March 11, 2019 at 5:25PM


It was a solid down day for natural gas prices today, with the April contract finishing down just over 3% on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

The weakness was felt along the entire natural gas strip, though was more pronounced in the front month contracts.

natural gas commodity weather

Back on Friday, we took a "slightly bearish" stance in our afternoon update, citing risk of moderating weather forecasts helping to ease low storage concerns.

natural gas commodity weather

This worked out quite well, as forecast GWDD totals for the next couple of weeks were roughly 15-20 GWDDs lower than Friday's forecasts.

natural gas commodity weather

With balances already weakening, less weather demand means less natural gas burned, and allows the market to be more comfortable with storage levels.

CPC's forecasts show, in map form, a notable day over day change in the warmer direction.

natural gas commodity weather

While the pattern can still be described as "variable" rather than "warm", there are signs that warm may begin to win out toward the end of the month into April, as seen in the latest CFSv2 April forecast.

natural gas commodity weather

What will all of this mean to natural gas prices moving forward? Try out a 10-day free trial here to give our research a closer look!