BWS Blog


Bullish EIA Number Pushes Gas Higher

Thursday, February 21, 2019 at 5:07PM


The March natural gas contract rallied over 2% today as weather model guidance remained bullish and the EIA announced a slightly larger storage draw last week than expected.

natural gas commodity weather

As has been the theme all week the March natural gas contract was the strongest along the futures curve and led the way higher, buoyed by more cash strength.

natural gas commodity weather

Yesterday in our Afternoon Update we warned about bullish risks today as we expected both a bullish EIA number and more supportive weather model guidance. We reiterated this in our Morning Update today, where again we held Slightly Bullish sentiment.

natural gas commodity weather

This worked well as the EIA reported a draw of 177 bcf of gas from storage last week, which was only slightly larger than our estimate of 172 bcf but more significantly above the consensus around 165 bcf.

natural gas commodity weather

As we immediately warned subscribers following the number, we saw this as supportive for the natural gas market as it was solidly tighter than the last few weeks of EIA numbers.

natural gas commodity weather

Cold Week 2 forecasts have continued to support prices as well.

natural gas commodity weather

This combination has helped lead a recovery in the April/October J/V spread.

natural gas commodity weather

In our Afternoon Update today for subscribers we outlined the latest weather model changes and explained how we see natural gas price risk skewed into the weekend, detailing today's spread action, the latest daily balances, and how weather forecasts can change into tomorrow morning. To give this report and all our other weather and natural gas driven-research a look, try out a 10-day free trial here.