Tuesday, February 19, 2019 at 5:06PM
March gas settled up almost a percent and a half higher on the day today as Week 2 forecasts trended colder over the weekend and physical gas prices were firm today. Yet despite strong cash prices it was actually the July natural gas contract that logged the largest gain today. Futures first bounced on Henry Hub cash prices trading over $2.7 this morning. This came following our Morning Update which highlighted "Slightly Bullish" risks for natural gas prices today due to colder long-range forecasts and impressive recent demand. Long-range GEFS forecasts then maintained these significant cold risks, and though the 12z run lost a few HDDs it still proved to be supportive this afternoon following a solidly warmer operational GFS (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). Traders are also positioning ahead of what should be a large storage withdraw announced on Thursday. Dominion Transmission announced their third largest draw of the season yesterday. Today for clients we released our Natural Gas Weekly Update which outlined our latest thoughts on how gas prices should trend through the week including how weather models should change, what Thursday's EIA number should be, and what the latest spread action said about price risk moving forward. Try out a 10-day free trial here to give all this research a closer look.