BWS Blog


Models Flip Back Warmer And Gas Crashes Lower

Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 4:52PM


After two days of gains on colder weather model guidance, key models flipped warmer last night and again this afternoon to hit the front of the natural gas strip hard. The March contract sold off the most accordingly, dipping over 4% on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

Later contracts found decently more support overall.

natural gas commodity weather

This sent the April/October contract spread to a new low settle.

natural gas commodity weather

The culprit was primarily overnight weather model guidance that trended far warmer. We outlined this in our Morning Update.

natural gas commodity weather

Afternoon weather model guidance trended warmer as well, leading the Climate Prediction Center to show significantly more Week 2 warm risks in the East.

natural gas commodity weather

Meanwhile, traders were positioning ahead of an EIA print tomorrow that should be quite unimpressive. We saw a far smaller weekly GWDD count than the previous week and it was far more in line with the second gas week of the year.

natural gas commodity weather

The print may be very slightly tighter than the last couple weeks, but still does not appear likely to be impressive.

natural gas commodity weather

This has certainly been an influence in recent gas price action, with the front of the strip appearing particularly heavy over the past couple of weeks as it has struggled to hold onto gains. In our Afternoon Update we outlined our latest expectations for the EIA print tomorrow, as well as how weather models can shift through the week and how the latest daily balance data skews gas price risk moving forward. Try out a 10-day free trial here to give it a look.