BWS Blog


Colder End Of February Keeps Gas Bid

Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 4:31PM


It was another day of strength at the front of the natural gas futures curve as the March contract logged a gain slightly less than 2% on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

Gains were strongest at the front of the strip, though all of Cal19 seemed to trade about equally.

natural gas commodity weather

The April/October J/V contract spread continues to bounce after setting a low last Friday.

natural gas commodity weather

Yesterday, in our Afternoon Update, we outlined our Slightly Bullish sentiment heading into the overnight trading session even with some slightly warmer weather models.

natural gas commodity weather

Prices bounced overnight on a colder 6z GEFS weather model, and we reiterated our "Slightly Bullish" sentiment this morning even after we revised down our GWDD forecast slightly as we saw balances supportive for prices today with more Week 3 and 12z model run cold risks.

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

Then colder 12z GFS/GEFS weather model guidance helped rally the March gas contract up towards our $2.7 resistance level.

natural gas commodity weather

Meanwhile, we continue to track long-range weather trends to update our March forecast accordingly. That was a key focus in our Seasonal Trader Report, which over the past few weeks accurately predicted the cold trend we are now seeing in February. Of note in today's Report was a recent trend stronger in upstream El Nino conditions into March on the American CFSv2 climate model guidance.

natural gas commodity weather

To read what this means for both forward weather expectations and natural gas prices, as well as to begin receiving all our other detailed analysis on natural gas and weather, try out a 10-day free trial here.