BWS Blog


Warmer Weather, Loose Balances, And Weak Cash Combine To Hit Gas Further

Friday, February 01, 2019 at 4:11PM


Natural gas prices closed at their lows for the week as afternoon weather model guidance showed more limited cold risks and cash prices traded down significantly this morning on weekend warmth. The March contract ended up settling down almost 3% on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

It was an ugly day all along the strip with March plummeting on the week as well.

natural gas commodity weather

The winter premium of the March/April H/J spread continued to get sucked out.

natural gas commodity weather

Such bearish trends began overnight on a solid GWDD loss (as seen in our Morning Update).

natural gas commodity weather

Cash prices then sold off this morning in line with expectations we outlined for our clients, as balances remain loose and the weekend and early next week all look quite warm.

natural gas commodity weather

Afternoon model guidance was unable to save prices either, with warmer trends clearly seen in the medium-range on Climate Prediction Center forecasts.

natural gas commodity weather

However, the Climate Prediction Center is still forecasting colder risks in the Week 3-4 time frame.

natural gas commodity weather

In our Pre-Close Update for clients we provided our expected weather model trends over the weekend, breaking down how we would expect key models to move and explaining how that could impact natural gas prices into next week. Try out a 10-day free trial here to give it a closer look.