BWS Blog


Warmer American Weather Model Guidance Reverses Gas Mid-Day

Wednesday, January 23, 2019 at 4:44PM


February natural gas prices were initially strong this morning, as overnight model guidance trended colder before afternoon models generally warmed in the long-range. This pressured the prompt gas contract quite a bit, leading it to settle down around 2% on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

After the February contract led this morning, it lagged the most along the strip into the settle too.

natural gas commodity weather

In fact, later contracts caught a bid into the settle, pulling the March/April H/J contract spread back to within a couple cents of its recent lows back early in January.

natural gas commodity weather

Meanwhile, we can clearly see the warmer trend across the South on afternoon GEFS weather model guidance that shot prices lower (image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits).

natural gas commodity weather

This came as traders were positioning ahead of what should be the largest reported natural gas storage withdrawal of the heating season thus far.

natural gas commodity weather

A large withdrawal is expected in the East particularly, where both DTI and TCO announced their combined largest storage withdrawal of the winter thus far.

natural gas commodity weather

Yet there is little doubt that forward weather forecasts will matter more to traders than the EIA print tomorrow unless it misses significantly from consensus, as it was the warmer Week 2 risks across the South that really hit prices today.

natural gas commodity weather

Either way, we expect an active day tomorrow with significant weather forecast changes and an important EIA gas storage number to be announced. In our Note of the Day today we took a look at how looseness in daily gas balances was keeping prices heavy while in our Afternoon Update outlined how we see gas price risk skewed into next week and how we would expect weather model guidance to change moving forward. Try out a 10-day free trial here to give all this research a look.