BWS Blog


Production Dip Keeps Gas Firm

Tuesday, January 08, 2019 at 4:45PM


The February natural gas contract logged a small gain on the day, with colder mid-day weather model runs being canceled out by warmer European model guidance into the settle and limiting the gain to just under 1%.

natural gas commodity weather

This February gain was in line with what we saw for most contracts in 2019, and it was actually the summer contracts that were the strongest on the day. The March contract meanwhile logged a small loss.

natural gas commodity weather

The result was a large move higher in the February/March contract spread back to recent highs.

natural gas commodity weather

Meanwhile, the famed March/April H/J spread actually fell to new lows on this March weakness today.

natural gas commodity weather

Prices were initially quite strong on overnight GWDD additions that we outlined in our Morning Update.

natural gas commodity weather

This followed a turn in our sentiment to "Slightly Bullish" in our Afternoon Update yesterday, which verified well as prices shot over $3 multiple times today.

natural gas commodity weather

Of note was a recent dip in production since the new year, which has kept supply more limited. After ramping into the new year, year-over-year production growth is only sitting around 9 bcf/d right now.

natural gas commodity weather

This could help increase upside in gas prices if it persists and weather forecasts trend colder; we outlined the possibilities of this in our Note of the Day, Afternoon Update, and subscriber live chat. We also released our Seasonal Trader Report today, where we looked at our forecast through the remainder of winter and considered the impacts of a recent weakening in El Nino conditions.

natural gas commodity weather

To view all this research and see how we see natural gas price risk skewed over the coming few weeks, try out a 10-day free trial here.