BWS Blog


Natural Gas Keeps Chopping Around

Friday, November 30, 2018 at 4:57PM


It was another choppy day in the natural gas space, as after yesterday's EIA dip got bought up we again saw a couple intraday dips get bought up today, with the January contract just settling down just three quarters of a percent.

natural gas commodity weather

For yet another day we saw the March contract lead the way lower as well.

natural gas commodity weather

Prices initially worked lower through the morning session on some warmer GFS weather model trends, as well as slight warmer trends in overnight models. We highlighted this in our Morning Update.

natural gas commodity weather

Additionally, we noted in our intraday Note of the Day for clients today that production appeared to hit a new record high today with LNG exports sitting near record highs as well.

natural gas commodity weather

Still, the impact of new record production has clearly faded from the summer, when it was easily able to hit prices. Now storage levels are low enough to be the key focus in the market, making weather all the more important. The Climate Prediction Center picked up this afternoon on some of the warmer trends we highlighted overnight that were able to hit prices a bit.

natural gas commodity weather

Yet dips were still bought, and some slightly colder trends on afternoon weather model guidance seemed to play a role. We highlighted these in our Pre-Close Update, where we run through our natural gas sentiment headed into the weekend and highlight where we expect forecasts to trend by next week. The Climate Prediction Center made their 3-4 Week forecast clear today, calling for widespread warmth later in December, though they have recently been a bit too far on the warm side.

natural gas commodity weather

Meanwhile, we have been actively monitoring Sea Surface Temperatures across the globe. In our live chat with subscribers Tuesday we highlighted some key features in this, and today in our Pre-Close Update described how El Nino Conditions upstream and various pools of warmer ocean temperatures could influence model trends moving forward.

natural gas commodity weather

To give this research a look, and begin receiving all our highly detailed weather and natural gas analysis, including the latest Week 3 forecasts, weather-adjusted supply and demand statistics, and contract spread analogs, try out a 10-day free trial here.