Monday, November 19, 2018 at 4:49PM
It was another great day for natural gas bulls, as colder weather trends on weekend model guidance primarily in Week 2 helped the December natural gas contract shoot 10% higher on the day. After a large gap up prices did fall some on warmer overnight model trends before colder afternoon models sent prices right back up to highs. The entire winter strip was up about the same with the April contract and even the rest of the 2019 strip participating a bit more. In our Friday Pre-Close Update for subscribers we highlighted that weather models were likely to add GWDDs over the weekend, which skewed weather risk "Slightly Bullish." We started the report outlining too that "...we see upside risk winning out over downside risk..." which verified well with last evening's gap. Then this morning we noted warmer overnight weather models which would mean "bounces may be sold now" since these models were, "...an indication that prices will likely struggle to take out the $4.7-$4.75 resistance level they trended near last night" even though "bounces are still likely over $4.5 early in the week." All of these played out well, with sellers early then colder afternoon model guidance briefly sending prices over $4.75 before a reversal back below $4.6 post-settle. It was the colder GFS/GEFS models late this morning and early this afternoon that really got prices moving (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). We also published our Natural Gas Weekly Update, which is our flagship 17-page report on the state of the natural gas market as a whole. In it we broke down expectations for Wednesday's EIA print, as well as how we see weather models likely to trend through the week, what current weather forecasts look like, and what natural gas spreads may be signifying about forward price risk. One point we have continued to emphasize is how bullish weather has been through 2018, a trend likely to continue moving forward. This will be seen on Wednesday when the EIA should announce a very large storage withdrawal. This volatility is certainly here to stay, and we're working to keep clients ahead of it. To begin receiving all our numerous daily reports, from our Morning Update covering weather model trends and our price expectations for the day to our Note of the Day looking at Week 3 weather and weather-adjusted gas S/D balances, try out a 10-day free trial here.