BWS Blog


Natural Gas Goes Limit Up

Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 4:52PM


For the second time in 2018 the prompt month natural gas contract went 30 cents limit up as bullish weather risks combined with continued fear about low storage levels to shoot the winter natural gas complex higher.

natural gas commodity weather

It was the March contract that made the largest move higher today, as it was the original contract to go limit up this morning. It settled up over 40 cents on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

This was not particularly a surprise to our subscribers, as in our Afternoon Update yesterday and our Morning Update again this morning we reiterated slightly bullish sentiment given continued cold weather risks and low storage fears. Our sentiment was "Slightly Bullish" as GWDD additions were not particularly impressive, but $4.1 was still one of our targets eyed for the day.

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

Our intraday Note of the Day warned as well that gas prices were likely to set a new high later in the day following a mid-morning pullback.

natural gas commodity weather

These trends came with only modest overnight GWDD additions.

natural gas commodity weather

However, storage levels remain incredibly low, making the market uniquely sensitive to any colder weather trends, and long-range blocking signals continue to indicate cold is at least likely to get locked in across the Northeast.

natural gas commodity weather

Other balance dynamics are not helping the bear natural gas case either, with LNG exports continuing to sit near highs.

natural gas commodity weather

Today we also published our Seasonal Trader Report with our 5-month GWDD forecast for clients, as well as hosting our live subscriber-only chat on Enelyst to discuss the latest dynamics in the natural gas market. Of note was the development of a -NAO block downstream, which we noted would be crucial for determining how weather trends into late November and accordingly how gas prices move (image GEFS model spread forecast courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center/NOAA).

natural gas commodity weather

We've been covering all aspects of this latest nat gas spike for clients, from the changing weather forecasts to trader sentiment on storage fears and the latest balance dynamics. To give all this research a look, try out a 10-day free trial here.