Monday, November 12, 2018 at 4:22PM
It was another strong day in the natural gas complex, as though the December contract settled significantly off its highs a colder European weather model run later in the day sent prices right back up over the $3.9 level. The March contract was the strongest on the day as traders moved bullish risk further along the curve. We identified this early in the day and warned clients in our Note of the Day that any AM pullback was unlikely to sustain and $3.75 support would be firm. Our Note concluded, "...[t]he market has tightened on recent cold, and we are not sure weaker Week 2 cold trends can break $3.9 again yet, but GWDD adds should at least add support near $3.75." We ended up being able to break $3.9 again this afternoon after double-testing $3.75. This came after our Slightly Bullish AM Update where we saw bullish weather trends over the weekend likely to keep prices bid today. Prices did in fact get right back up to the $3.9 level this afternoon on a bullish European ensemble model run following a $3.75 test on warmer American model guidance. This came despite modest warmer trends earlier in the day on some medium-range model guidance. The natural gas market continues to remain incredibly weather-sensitive, with any risks of increased cold in the long-range quickly spiking prices higher. Strong cash prices have helped too, as they took another leg higher today with cold peaking Wednesday. Since the settle prices have shot higher, too, moving in much closer to where cash prices traded on the day. In our Afternoon Update for clients we looked at our latest natural gas sentiment and looked at where short-term risk was skewed while also outlining afternoon trends on model guidance. We'll look at the latest again tomorrow morning too as overnight guidance should confirm or deny some of the more recent trends. To give all this research a look, try out a 10-day free trial here.